After 3 consecutive months of growth, the housing market appears to have eased a bit in December.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, December’s Pending Home Sales Index slipped 4 percent from the month prior. The index measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide, but not yet sold.
Despite falling below its benchmark “100 value”, December’s Pending Home Sales Index is the reading’s second-highest value since April 2010 — the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit program.
In other words, the housing market continues to show signs of improvement, propelled by low home prices and the cheapest mortgage rates of all-time.
Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at an average of 3.96% in December — a 75-basis point improvement from December 2010. This helps to make homes more affordable nationwide.
On a regional basis, December’s Pending Home Sales Index varied :
- Northeast Region: -3.1 percent from November 2011
- Midwest Region : +4.0 percent from November 2011
- South Region : -2.6 percent from November 2011
- West Region : -11.0 percent from November 2011
But even regional data is only so helpful. Like everything in real estate, data must be local to be relevant.
Throughout the West Region, for example, the U.S. region in which pending home sales fell the most, several states must have performed better than the regional average. And, undoubtedly, there were cities, towns, and neighborhoods that experienced marked market growth.
Unfortunately, the Pending Home Sales Index can’t capture that data. Nor can it identify the markets in which home sales suffered.
For today’s Delavan home buyers and sellers, therefore, it’s important to understand your local market and the drivers of local activity. Reports like the Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture U.S. housing but for data that matters to you, you’ll want to look local.
For local real estate data, talk to an experienced real estate professional.
Lake Geneva real estate mortgage rates have troughed. Or, so it seems.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 4.00 percent nationwide — roughly the same rate as it’s been for 5 weeks.
During that times, rates have ranged between 3.97 and 4.02 percent with an accompanying 0.7 discount points, plus “typical” closing costs. Please note, Walworth State Bank does not typically charge points on these type of mortgages. Closing costs vary by state and 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.
In other words, to get the weekly, published Freddie Mac rate, borrowers in Wisconsin should expect to pay a complete set of fees to their respective lenders. The larger the loan, the higher the costs. “Low-fee” and “no-fee” loans are available, too — typically in exchange for a slightly higher rate.
A breakdown of the Freddie Mac survey shows that interest rates and discount points vary by region. Typically, states in the West Region offer the lowest rates but with the highest costs. East Region states work in reverse; rates are often highest but the accompanying points are fewest.
The most recent mortgage rate breakdown by region shows:
- Northeast Region: 4.00% with 0.7 discount points
- West Region: 3.96% with 0.8 discount points
- Southeast Region: 4.06% with 0.9 discount points
- North Central Region: 3.97% with 0.7 discount points
- Southwest Region: 4.04% with 0.7 discount points
What’s most notable, though, is that in all 4 regions, rates are well below their 2011 highs. Since mid-April, Lake Geneva real estate mortgage rates have been in descent, dropping for 5 consecutive months before reaching to their current, “rock-bottom” levels in early-November.
Since then, however, rates have idled and the forces that combined to make rates low throughout Lake Geneva mortgage are subsiding. The U.S. economy is showing signs of a rebirth; the Eurozone is edging closer to solvency; and the housing market is recovering.
So, if you’ve been wondering whether now is a good time to refinance, or whether higher rates will harm home affordability, the answer is yes. Get in touch with your loan officer to review your home loan options because, looking ahead to 2012, mortgage rates look poised to rise.
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.
For the third consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote, objecting only to the language used in the Fed’s official statement.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has “expanding moderately” since its last meeting in December 2011, adding that the growth is occurring despite “slowing in global growth” — a reference to ongoing economic uncertainty within the Eurozone.
The Federal Reserve expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters but is wary of “strains” from global financial markets, and these three threats to the U.S. economy :
- The housing sector remains “depressed”
- The unemployment rate remains “elevated”
- Fixed business investment has “slowed”
On the positive side, the FOMC said that household spending is rising and inflation remains in-check. The group also believes that employment will gradually improve nationwide going forward.
The Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs.
Immediately following the FOMC’s statement, mortgage markets rallied, pressuring mortgage rates to fall in and around Williams Bay.
Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and, for homeowners willing to pay points plus closing costs, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgages can be locked at below 4 percent. If you’re in the process of buying or refinancing a home in Wisconsin , it’s a good time to lock a mortgage rate with your lender.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a one-day event slated for March 13, 2012.
The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 2-day meeting today, its first of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
The FOMC is a designated, rotating, 12-person committee within the Federal Reserve, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Members of the FOMC sub-committee are the voting members of the Federal Reserve; the ones that ultimately determine U.S. monetary policy.
The most well-known Federal Reserve monetary policy tool is the central bank’s Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other for a period of one night.
The Fed Funds Rate can only be changed by FOMC vote.
For home buyers and would-be refinancing households in Delavan , it’s important to recognize that the Fed Funds Rate is an interest rate separate and distinct from “mortgage rates”. Mortgage rates are not voted upon by the Federal Reserve. Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security bought and sold among investors.
Historically, there is little correlation between the Fed Funds Rates and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates throughout Wisconsin. Going back 20 years, the benchmark rates have been separated by as much as 5.29% and have been as near as 0.52%.
The spread has even gone negative, most recently in 1979 and 1981 — a period marked by high inflation.
Today, the separation between the Fed Funds Rate and the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is roughly 3.60%. Beginning at 12:30 PM ET, however, that spread is expected to change. The FOMC will make its statement to the press at that time, and will release its quarterly forecast to the markets.
As Wall Street reacts to the Fed’s press release and projections, mortgage rates will move.
Investors expect the Fed to vote the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current range near 0.000 percent, but are unsure of how the Fed will characterize the U.S. economy. If the Fed speaks optimistically on the economy, stock markets should rise and mortgage bonds should fall, driving mortgage rates higher.
Conversely, if the Fed shows concern for future economic growth, mortgage rates should drop. Either way, today figures to be volatile one for mortgage markets.
When mortgage markets get volatile, the safe play as a rate shopper is to lock your mortgage rate immediately. There too much risk in floating.
Existing Home Sales Approach Bull Market Territory
By · Comments
The housing market finished 2011 with strength, and is carrying measurable momentum into 2012.
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, December’s Existing Home Sales climbed by 120,00 units overall from the month prior on its way to an 11-month high.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied; that cannot be considered new construction.
After 4.61 million existing homes were sold in December, there are now just 2.38 million homes for sale nationwide. The last time the national home supply was this sparse was March 2005.
At today’s sales pace, the complete, national home inventory would be exhausted in 6.2 months — the fastest pace since before the recession. A 6.0-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance.
The December Existing Home Sales report contained noteworthy foreclosure and short sale statistics, too :
- Foreclosures sold at an average discount of 22% to market value
- Short sales sold at an average discount of 13% to market value
- Together, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 32% of all home sales
Clearly, “distressed homes” remain a large part of the U.S. housing market.
Furthermore, in its report, the real estate trade group also noted that one-third of homes under contract to sell nationwide succumbed to contract failure last month. That’s up from 9% one year ago.
Contract failure occurs for a multitude of reasons, most notably homes appraising for less than the purchase price; the buyer’s failure to achieve a mortgage approval; and, insurmountable home inspection issues. December’s high failure rate underscores the importance of getting pre-approved as a buyer, and of buying homes in “good condition”.
For today’s home buyer in Lake Geneva , December’s Existing Home Sales figures may be construed as a “buy signal”. Home supplies are dropping and buyer demand is rising. This is the basic recipe for higher home prices ahead.
If your 2012 plans call for buying a home, consider that home values throughout Wisconsin are expected to rise as the year progresses. The best values of the year may be the ones secured this winter.
Mortgage Payments Fall 12% Since February 2011
By · Comments
As mortgage rates drop, so do housing payments. It’s a good time to consider refinancing your home, or making an offer on a new one. Mortgage payment affordability has never been so high in history.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is now 3.94 percent – an all-time low – with an accompanying 0.8 discount points. This means that in order to get access to the 3.94 percent rate, Lake Geneva real estate homeowners and home buyers should expect to pay a loan fee equal to 0.8% of the borrowed amount, plus “normal” closing costs.
Last week, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate was 3.99 percent with an accompanying 0.7 discount points.
Mortgage rates in Wisconsin have been in decline for most of the year. Since peaking in early-February, the average home owner’s principal + interest payment on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage had now dropped by 12.2 percent.
Here is how mortgage payments compare, then and now, not accounting for your individual tax-and-insurance escrow :
- February 10, 2011 : Payment of $539.88 per $100,000 borrowed
- December 15, 2011 : Payment of $473.96 per $100,000 borrowed
For existing homeowners, the dramatic drop in payments is reason to reach out to your loan officer. A refinance could save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan — especially if you chose to refinance your mortgage into a 15-year program.
The 15-year mortgage, says Freddie Mac, is also at an all-time low, registering 3.21 percent with 0.8 discount points, on average.
For home buyers, today’s low rates present an interesting opportunity.
Mortgage rates are the key factor in determining your monthly housing payment so, with average mortgage rates below 4 percent, it’s no wonder home affordability is cresting. However, the housing market is showing signs of recovery. Home supplies are dwindling, buyer demand is rising, and the economy appears to be mending.
Home prices are expected to rise in 2012 and, as they do, they’ll take housing payments with them. The best time to buy a home may be now; before the recovery completes.
Bank Repossessions Drop To A 44-Month Low
By · Comments
Foreclosure activity continues to concentrate over just a few states.
According to foreclosure-tracker RealtyTrac, November’s foreclosure filings fell 3 percent as compared to October, and 14 percent from November 2010.
“Foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term for the various “action steps” throughout the foreclosure process. The grouping comprises default notices, scheduled home auctions, and bank repossessions.
As in most months, though, foreclosure activity remains concentrated by state. More than half of last month’s bank repossessions can be traced to just 6 states.
- California : 14.8% of all bank repossessions
- Florida : 12.7% of all bank repossessions
- Texas : 7.0% of all bank repossessions
- Georgia : 6.9% of all bank repossessions
- Arizona : 6.7% of all bank repossessions
- Michigan : 6.3% of all bank repossessions
Meanwhile, with just 5 repossessions, South Dakota topped the list of states with the fewest bank repossessions in November. The Mount Rushmore State accounted for just 0.009% of REO nationwide in a month in which bank repossessions dropped to a 44-month low point across the United States.
The drop in REO is coming at a tough time for today’s Lake Geneva real estate home buyers. Distressed properties are in high demand — mostly because they sell at steep discounts.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, distressed homes accounted for 28 percent of all home sales in October. As fewer bank-owned homes become available, though, there will be fewer “deals” to be had.
Especially as the broader housing market continues to signal its recovery.
If you plan to buy a bank-owned foreclosed property, do your research first. As supplies drop, the price for foreclosed homes throughout Wisconsin relative to non-distressed homes may rise, rendering REO properties less of a relative “value”.
Before you write a contract, therefore, talk with a licensed real estate agent. There’s plenty of foreclosure data available online but, when it’s time to buy, you should have an experienced agent on your side.
Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The vote was nearly unanimous for the second straight month. Just one FOMC member dissented in the vote, favoring additional policy stimulus beyond what the Federal Reserve currently provides.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve sais that the the U.S. economy is improving, noting that since its November 2011 meeting, the economy has been “expanding moderately”. The Fed also added that domestic growth is occurring despite some “apparent slowing in global growth” — a nod to ongoing uncertainty within the Eurozone.
The Federal Reserve expects a moderate pace of growth over the next few quarters, and believes that the jobs market will continue to improve, but slowly.
Other potential soft spots within the economy include :
- A slowdown in business investment
- A “depressed” housing market
- Strains in global financial markets
The Federal Reserve added no new policies at its December meeting, and made no changes to existing ones. It re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its current range of 0.000-0.250 percent “at least until mid-2013″ and re-affirmed “Operation Twist” — the stimulus program through which the Fed sells Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and uses the proceeds to buy mortgage bonds with maturity between 6 and 30 years.
Mortgage bonds are mostly unchanged since the Fed’s announcement, giving mortgage rates in Lake Geneva real estate little reason to rise or fall.
Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and, for homeowners willing to pay points + closing costs, 30-year fixed rate mortgages can be locked at less than 4 percent. If you’re thinking of buying or refinancing a home, it’s a good time to lock a mortgage rate.
The FOMC’s next meeting will be its first scheduled meeting of the new year. The meeting is slated for January 24-25, 2012.
America’s Best Places To Raise A Family, Listed By State
By · Comments
BusinessWeek recently released its 2011 America’s Best Place to Raise a Family rankings. College-town Blacksburg, Virginia took top honors, breaking a 2-year win streak for the Chicago, Illinois region.
In 2009, suburban Mount Prospect, Illinois placed first. Last year, it was Tinley Park, Illinois.
The BusinessWeek report employs data from real estate information firm Onboard Informatics to make its rankings, compiling data across categories such as education, crime, and jobs plus access to parks and affordable homes. All selections are limited by population; all selections are home to 50,000 residents or fewer. Median incomes are within 20 percent — plus or minus — of the state’s median income levels.
BusinessWeek names one winner in each state. The winners in the 10 most populous states and their nearest “big city” are listed below
- California : East San Gabriel (Los Angeles)
- Texas : Wells Branch (Austin)
- New York : Hampton Manor (Albany)
- Florida : Niceville (Fort Walton Beach)
- Illinois : Morton Grove (Chicago)
- Pennsylvania : Cecil-Bishop (Pittsburgh)
- Ohio : St. Henry (Dayton)
- Michigan : Spring Arbor (Jackson)
- Georgia : Hoschton (Atlanta)
- North Carolina : Tryon (Spartanburg, SC)
The winners in all 50 states can be found on the BusinessWeek website.
Rankings like the BusinessWeek America’s Best Place to Raise a Family can be useful for home buyers in Lake Geneva real estate , but like everything in real estate, statistics do not apply to every home equally. Even within the “best towns”, there are areas in which school systems are better, crime figures are lower, and amenities are more plentiful.
Therefore, before you make the decision to buy a home, talk with a real estate agent who has local market knowledge. It’s the most effective means to get data that matters to you.
Mortgage markets were mostly unchanged for the 6th consecutive week last week as Wall Street’s uncertainty regarding the future of U.S. and global economies remain.
Mortgage bonds made gains made through the early part of the week, which caused mortgage rates in Wisconsin to drop Monday through Wednesday afternoon. Those gains were erased, however, as 23 of 27 Euro leaders reached agreement on fiscal coordination and budget planning, sparking optimism for the future of the Eurozone, in general.
Mortgage rates rose Thursday and Friday.
This week, the momentum may continue. The main story we’ll be watching is the Federal Open Market Committee’s Tuesday meeting — its 8th scheduled meeting of the year and its last until 2012.
When the Fed meets, mortgage rates are often volatile.
At its meeting, the FOMC is expected to vote the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current range near zero percent. However, it won’t be the Fed’s vote on the Fed Funds Rate that changes markets. Wall Street is keyed in to two other elements, instead.
The first element is the verbiage of the FOMC’s press release to markets. Issued upon adjournment, the FOMC’s press release identifies strengths and weaknesses in the U.S. economy, and offers an outlook for the future plus potential threats. The “tone” of the press release can change how mortgage bonds trade.
If the Fed describes an economy in recovery with few threat to growth, mortgage rates are likely to rise post-FOMC. By contrast, if the Fed says the economy has slowed, mortgage rates should fall.
The second element on which Wall Street is focused is the likelihood of new, Fed-led economic stimulus. Should the Federal Reserve modify existing support programs, or introduce new ones, mortgage rates are sure to shift. Unfortunately, we can’t know in which direction — it will depend on the size of the program and its expected impact on the U.S. economy.
The Fed adjourns Tuesday at 2:15 PM ET.
Beyond the Fed, there is other rate-moving news, too, including Tuesday’s Retail Sales report, Thursday’s Producer Price Index, and Friday’s Consumer Price Index. Each has the capacity to change mortgage rates throughout Lake Geneva real estate so if you’re floating a mortgage rate, it may be a good time to lock one in.
Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 3.99% with 0.7 discount points, plus closing costs.