Archive for Census Bureau
Single-Family Housing Starts Powers Ahead
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The new construction housing market continues to improve.
One day after the National Association of Homebuilders reported a 5-year high in homebuilder confidence, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that single-family housing starts rose 2 percent for the second straight month last month.
In April, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, the government reports 492,000 single-family housing starts. A “housing start” is a home on which ground has broken.
In addition, March’s single-family housing starts were revised higher. What was previously reported as a three percent loss was re-measured and changed to a 0.2% gain.
The April tally marks a six percent increase over the one-year moving average and, along with the March revision, suggests that the springtime housing market may have just been seasonal.
In March, a number of reports suggested a housing retreat :
- Existing Home Sales slipped 3%
- New Home Sales slipped 7%
- Homebuilder Confidence fell 4 points
Since then, though, low mortgage rates and affordable home prices appear to have sustained the new construction market, which now appears poised for a strong 2012.
As one mark of proof, active buyers of newly-built homes in Lake Geneva and nationwide are scheduling “model home” showings at the fastest pace since 2007. The burst of foot traffic high has builders upping their sales expectations for the next 6 months.
A scenario like this would normally lead new home prices higher, but the pressure for prices to rise may be offset by the amount of new home supply coming online.
In addition to a rise in Housing Starts, the Census Bureau also reports that, in April, the number of Building Permits for single-family homes rose 2 percent to move to its second-highest level since March 2010 — the month preceding the end of the 2010 federal Home buyer tax credit.
86 percent of homes break ground within one month of permit issuance.
It’s unclear whether housing is on a steady path higher, but there’s a growing body of evidence that suggests the market bottom has already passed.
Lake Geneva Real Estate – New Home Sales Revised Higher In February; Slip 7% In March
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Sales of new homes ticked lower in March, unexpectedly.
Based on Census Bureau data, the number of new, single-family homes sold in March slipped 7 percent from February — the largest one-month drop in more than a year.
On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in Wisconsin and nationwide purchased 328,000 newly-built homes last month. The decrease in sales from February to March can be attributed, in part, though, to a massive upward revision in February’s figures.
Last month, the Census Bureau had reported 313,000 new home sales in February on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This month, those sales were re-measured to be 353,000 — an increase of 13 percent.
January’s sales were revised higher, too.
The long-term trend in the market for new homes remains “up”. This is no more apparent than when we look at the available new home inventory.
At the close of March, just 144,000 new homes were available for purchase, down 2,000 from the month prior and representing the most sparse new home housing supply since at least 1993, the year that the Census Bureau starting tracking such data.
At the current pace of sales, the new home housing stock would be sold out in 5.3 months. A six-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance.
For new Lake Geneva home buyers, March’s New Home Sales report does not represent a housing market pull-back. It may represent opportunity, however.
From October 2011 to February 2012, housing data was uniformly strong. Home sales were higher, home supplies were lower, and confidence was rising. In March, it was the reverse. This is normal because growth is rarely linear.
In any market, it’s a few steps forward and a single step back, and housing is likely showing a similar pattern. With Lake Geneva real estate mortgage rates still low and builder confidence down, it’s a terrific time to shop new construction.
There are deals to be found for buyers who seek them out.
Lake Geneva Real Estate Mortgage Rates Climb Sharply After Retail Sales Report
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The U.S. economy is expanding, fueled by a renewed consumer optimism and increased consumer spending.
As reported by the Census Bureau, Retail Sales in February, excluding cars and auto parts, rose 1 percent to $335 billion as 11 of 13 retail sectors showed improvement last month.
February markets the 19th time in twenty months that U.S. Retail Sales increased on a month-over-month basis.
Unfortunately, what’s good for the economy may be bad for Lake Geneva home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers. Home affordability is expected to worsen as the U.S. economy improves.
The connection between Retail Sales and home affordability is indirect, but noteworthy — especially given today’s broader market conditions.
First, let’s talk about affordability.
Last week, the National Association of REALTORS® released its monthly Housing Affordability Index, showing that homes are more affordable to everyday home buyers than at any time in recorded history. For buyers with median earnings buying median-priced homes, monthly payments now comprise just 12.1% of the monthly household income.
The real estate trade group considers 25% to be the benchmark for home affordability. Today’s payment levels are less than half of that.
The reasons why today’s homes are so affordable are three-fold:
- Home prices remain relatively low as compared to peak pricing
- Fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgage rates remain near all-time lows
- Average earnings are increasing nationwide
Rising Retail Sales, however, can derail the trend. This is because Retail Sales measures consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy. As the economy expands, the forces that combined to raise home affordability so high begin to wane.
First, in a recovering economy, Lake Geneva mortgage rates tend to rise and, throughout 2012 and 2013, home prices are expected do the same. Second, as average earnings increase, it can spur inflation which is bad for mortgage rates, too.
Home affordability is at all-time highs today. But, in part because of February’s Retail Sales data, we should not expect these levels to last. Lake Geneva mortgage rates are higher by 1/4 percent since the Retail Sales data was released — roughly $16 per $100,000 borrowed — and are expected to rise more throughout the spring home purchase season.
Retail Sales are up 6 percent from a year ago.
Lake Geneva Real Estate – New Home Supply Falls To 5.6 Months
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The new construction market rolls on.
As foreshadowed by February’s Homebuilder Confidence survey, which rose to a 4-year high, the Census Bureau reports new homes are selling more quickly than builders have built them, lowering the national “home supply” to levels not seen since 2006.
A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction and, at the current pace of sales, the nation’s entire new home inventory of 151,000 homes would be sold in 5.6 months.
Anything less than 6.0-month supply is thought to connote a “sellers’ market”.
321,000 new homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. 7 of 10 new homes sold for less than $300,000.
The South Region continues to account for the majority of new construction sales, posting a 59% market share in January. South Region sales were up 9 percent as compared to December. The other 3 regions turned in mixed results.
- Northeast Region: +11.1% from December 2011
- Midwest Region: -24.5% from December 2011
- West Region: -10.6% from December 2011
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau’s New Home Sales data could be wrong.
Although New Home Sales were said to fall by about one percent nationally from December to January, the government’s monthly report was footnoted with a ±16.6% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +15%, or as low as -18%.
Because the range of values includes positive and negative values, the January New Home Sales data is of “zero confidence”. However, that’s not to say that it should be ignored. The aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey shows builders optimistic for the future, and a bevy of home sale data since October 2011 suggests a market in recovery.
If you’re in the market for new construction in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin therefore, consider going into contract sooner rather than later. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too — a terrific combination for today’s buyers.
In a few months, the landscape may look different.
Housing Starts Stay Strong; Building Permits Rise.
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The housing market has carried forward its year-end momentum.
According to the Census Bureau, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, January’s Single-Family Housing Starts crossed the half-million unit marker for the second straight month.
This hasn’t happened in close to 2 years and is the latest in a series of strong data that suggests the beleaguered housing market has turned a corner — both nationally and locally in Delavan.
Although single-family starts slipped 1 percent from December, January’s annualized 508,000 figure represents a 16% spike from January 2011 and is the second-highest reading since April 2010 — the last month of 2010′s federal home buyer tax credit program.
A “housing start” is a new home on which construction has started.
The strength of January’s Housing Starts data surprised Wall Street analysts and is partially responsible for Thursday’s unexpected mortgage rate spike.
In hindsight, though, we should have seen this coming.
Earlier in the week, the National Association of Homebuilders announced that homebuilder confidence had climbed to its highest point since 2007 amid builder reports of rising sales volume and the most foot traffic from buyers in more than 4 years.
In addition, builders expect to sell more homes in 2012 than in 2011.
Builders are building and buyers are buying.
Meanwhile, as another sign of housing market strength, the Census Bureau reports that, in January, Building Permits moved to a multi-year high as well. Permits issued for single-family homes in January rose 1 percent from December, a statistic that suggests housing will continue its run through the spring season, at least.
86 percent of homes break ground within one month of permit issuance.
It’s a good time to be a home buyer. Mortgage rates and home prices are low. Housing market momentum, however, is building. If you’re on the fence about whether to buy a home in Geneva National , ask your real estate agent for additional market information.
The cost of home-ownership may never be as low as it is today.
Supply Of New Homes At 6.1 Months Nationwide
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New Home Sales slowed into the New Year but the market for newly-built homes remains strong. For home buyers in Wisconsin and nationwide, December’s New Home Sales report is yet one more signal that the housing market recovery may be underway.
According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in December 2011 slipped 2 percent to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis nationwide.
A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction; a home for which the buyer will be the first owner and tenant.
As compared to December 2010, last months’ sales volume fell seven percent. It’s a statistic that suggests housing market weakness. However, in looking at a different component of the New Home Sales report — the supply of homes for sale — we’re forced to reconsider.
At the current pace of sales, every new home for sale nationwide would be “sold” in a matter of 6.1 months.
Economists believe that a 6.0-month supply defines a market in balance — anything quicker is termed a “seller’s market”. Statistics like that are enough to create urgency among today’s Lake Geneva home buyers.
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau’s data may be wrong.
Although December’s New Home Sales report shows sales down 2 percent, the government’s data was published with a ±13.2% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales figure may have been as low as -15.2 percent, or as high as +11.2 percent. And, because the range of possible values includes both positive and negative numbers, the Census Bureau had no choice but to assign its December data “Zero Confidence”.
It will be a few months before final revisions are made to December New Home Sales data. Until then, therefore, buyers should take cues from the market-at-large and the market-at-large hints at recovery. One example of this is homebuilders showing more confidence in their product than at any time in the last 5 years.
If your plans for 2012 call for buying new construction, therefore, consider using this lull to “make a deal”. As the year progresses, the great values in housing may be gone.
Housing Starts Rising; New Construction Turns The Corner?
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Another day, another signal that the market for newly-built homes is improving.
Single-Family Housing Starts rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 430,000 units in October – a 4 percent increase from September and the highest reading in 3 months.
A “Housing Start” is a home on which ground has been broken.
The increase in surprised Wall Street analysts, although it shouldn’t have.
Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders showed that Homebuilder Confidence is at its highest point since May 2010, the effect of better market conditions and more sold units. Rising housing starts amid a lift in builder confidence is to be expected — the two metrics have moved with loose correlation since mid-2000.
However, as with everything in real estate, Single-Family Housing Starts volume varied by location. The nation’s 4 regions posted wide-ranging results :
- Northeast Region : + 10.0% from September
- Midwest Region : -4.1% from September
- South Region : +11.3% from September
- West Region : -10.2% from September
Buyers of new construction in Lake Geneva mortgage can infer two key points from last month’s data.
First, with more homes will being built, home supply should rise, thereby softening pressure on rising home prices. This should help keep homes affordable.
However, the second point is that, with builder confidence rising, buyers are less likely to win price concessions and “free upgrades” in negotiations.
The last 6 weeks of 2011 may be your optimal time to buy new construction. Home prices remain affordable and mortgage rates are rock-bottom. In addition, because there are typically fewer active home buyers during the holidays, you’ll be more likely to locate one of the few remaining new construction “deals”.
Talk to your real estate agent about local trends and new construction.
New Home Inventory Keeps Sinking
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Home builders continue to sell homes and work through inventory.
According to data from the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in September jumped 6 percent from the month prior, beating analyst expectations. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in Wisconsin and nationwide closed on 313,000 newly-built homes last month.
It’s the highest reading since April and a major reason why the available number of new homes for sale is shrinking.
As compared to September 2010, there are 19% fewer homes for sale nationwide. At today’s sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be “sold out” in 6.2 months – the quickest sell-out pace since the April 2010 federal home buyer tax credit expiration.
It’s no wonder builder confidence is rising.
After averaging 15 through the first 9 months of the year, homebuilder confidence jumped 4 points for October, carried by low mortgage rates and the expectation for a strong winter/spring selling season.
For buyers in Lake Geneva real estate , this could be construed as a housing market-shifting signal. As builder confidence rises, it becomes more difficult to negotiate for upgrades and price reductions on a new home. “Great deals” get scarce.
Furthermore, it’s unlikely that mortgage rates will sustain their current, ultra-low levels into 2012. Rising rates lead to higher housing payments on a month-to-month basis.
If you’re in the market for a newly-built home, in other words, today’s homes may represent your best value of the year.