Archive for New Home Supply
Supply Of New Homes At 6.1 Months Nationwide
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New Home Sales slowed into the New Year but the market for newly-built homes remains strong. For home buyers in Wisconsin and nationwide, December’s New Home Sales report is yet one more signal that the housing market recovery may be underway.
According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in December 2011 slipped 2 percent to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis nationwide.
A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction; a home for which the buyer will be the first owner and tenant.
As compared to December 2010, last months’ sales volume fell seven percent. It’s a statistic that suggests housing market weakness. However, in looking at a different component of the New Home Sales report — the supply of homes for sale — we’re forced to reconsider.
At the current pace of sales, every new home for sale nationwide would be “sold” in a matter of 6.1 months.
Economists believe that a 6.0-month supply defines a market in balance — anything quicker is termed a “seller’s market”. Statistics like that are enough to create urgency among today’s Lake Geneva home buyers.
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau’s data may be wrong.
Although December’s New Home Sales report shows sales down 2 percent, the government’s data was published with a ±13.2% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales figure may have been as low as -15.2 percent, or as high as +11.2 percent. And, because the range of possible values includes both positive and negative numbers, the Census Bureau had no choice but to assign its December data “Zero Confidence”.
It will be a few months before final revisions are made to December New Home Sales data. Until then, therefore, buyers should take cues from the market-at-large and the market-at-large hints at recovery. One example of this is homebuilders showing more confidence in their product than at any time in the last 5 years.
If your plans for 2012 call for buying new construction, therefore, consider using this lull to “make a deal”. As the year progresses, the great values in housing may be gone.
New Home Supplies Fall To An 18-Month Low
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If you plan to buy of new construction in Wisconsin sometime in 2012, don’t expect today’s low prices. Like everything in housing of late, the market for newly-built homes appears to be stabilizing and, in some markets, improving.
As foreshadowed by this month’s strong Homebuilder Confidence survey, the Census Bureau reports that the number of new homes sold rose to a 6-month high in October, climbing to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.
A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction. It’s the opposite of an “existing home”.
Home buyers are comparing new construction to home resales and liking what they see. At the current sales pace, the nation’s complete new home inventory would now be depleted in just 6.3 months. This marks the lowest home supply since April 2010 — the last month of the last year’s federal homebuyer tax credit.
By building only to meet new demand, builders are keeping home supplies in check, and home prices stable. They’ve also found a niche market – 80% of homes sold last month sold for less than $300,000.
Split by region, the Census Bureau reports October’s New Home Sales as follows :
- Northeast Region : +0.0% from September 2011
- Midwest Region : +22.2% from September 2011
- South Region : -9.5% from September 2011
- West Region : -14.9% from September 2011
Unfortunately, the data may be incorrect.
Although the October New Home Sales report says that sales climbed 1.3 percent last month, the government’s data was published with a ±19.7% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +21.0 percent, or as low as -18.4 percent. Because the range of values includes both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its October data “zero confidence”.
As home buyers, then, we can’t take our market cues from the published data. Instead, we should look to other metrics including Housing Starts data and the aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey. Each points to strength in the new home market, and foretells higher home prices in 2012.
If you’re in the market for new construction, consider writing an offer soon. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too — a combination that keeps home payments low. Next year, that may not be the case.
New Home Inventory Keeps Sinking
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Home builders continue to sell homes and work through inventory.
According to data from the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in September jumped 6 percent from the month prior, beating analyst expectations. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in Wisconsin and nationwide closed on 313,000 newly-built homes last month.
It’s the highest reading since April and a major reason why the available number of new homes for sale is shrinking.
As compared to September 2010, there are 19% fewer homes for sale nationwide. At today’s sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be “sold out” in 6.2 months – the quickest sell-out pace since the April 2010 federal home buyer tax credit expiration.
It’s no wonder builder confidence is rising.
After averaging 15 through the first 9 months of the year, homebuilder confidence jumped 4 points for October, carried by low mortgage rates and the expectation for a strong winter/spring selling season.
For buyers in Lake Geneva real estate , this could be construed as a housing market-shifting signal. As builder confidence rises, it becomes more difficult to negotiate for upgrades and price reductions on a new home. “Great deals” get scarce.
Furthermore, it’s unlikely that mortgage rates will sustain their current, ultra-low levels into 2012. Rising rates lead to higher housing payments on a month-to-month basis.
If you’re in the market for a newly-built home, in other words, today’s homes may represent your best value of the year.
New Home Supplies Drop, And So Does Homebuilder Confidence
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On paper, the market for newly-built, Lake Geneva real estate single-family homes looks healthy.
Last month, the number of new homes sold on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis tallied 319,000. The May reading is the second-highest of the year, and 6 percent above the current 12-month average.
These are strong numbers in isolation. However, after accounting for the dwindling supply of new homes for sale as well, the figures look even stronger.
In May, at the current pace of sales, the complete, national inventory of new homes for sale would have been sold in just 6.2 months.
That’s the quickest pace in a year and a 3-month improvement from a year ago.
To hear it from homebuilders, though, you’d think that sales were crashing.
Homebuilder confidence slipped to a 9-month low this month; builders report slowing foot traffic; and the prospects for the next 6 months appear weak. This is not the portrait painted by HUD’s May New Home Sales report.
As a home buyer of Lake Geneva real estate, this dichotomy may work to your advantage.
Falling supplies and rising demand correlate to higher home prices. Yet, builders are pessimistic for their market. Therefore, despite the economics, psychology may help buyers experience more favorable negotiations, including complimentary upgrades and other builder concessions.
If you’re a buyer in today’s market, it’s a reason to consider the new home market. There may be good value once you know where to look.