Archive for Non-Farm Payrolls
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 7, 2012
Posted by: | Comments
After two weeks of no change, mortgage markets improved last week, pushing mortgage rates lower throughout Wisconsin.
The majority of the improvements occurred Friday after the April jobs report failed to impress Wall Street, and after it became clear that the Eurozone’s struggles with sovereign debt would continue.
According to Freddie Mac, conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to 3.84% nationwide, on average, for borrowers willing to pay 0.8 discount points at closing plus a full set of closing costs.
1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size such that one discount point on a $200,000 loan would require $2,000 to be paid at-closing.
Freddie Mac’s reported rates for the benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage are the lowest in recorded history.
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage is also at its lowest point in history. According to Freddie Mac’s survey, the 15-year fixed averaged 3.07% with 0.7 discount points last week. One year ago, the rate was 3.89%.
This week, with a data-sparse economic calendar, mortgage markets will likely take cues from events in Europe. Notably, France has elected a new leader, one that prefers growth over austerity; and voters in Greece have “punished” austerity-backing leaders, in the process creating a split parliament.
Each event adds uncertainty to an already unstable economic environment and uncertainty favors U.S. rate shoppers.
Doubt spurs investors to seek “safe” assets and U.S. government-backed bonds — including mortgage backed bonds — meet that criteria. As demand for mortgage bonds rise, mortgage rates tend to fall.
This week, rates are starting the week improved. Whether it’s a knee-jerk reaction to Eurozone news from the weekend, or low rates are here to stay is tough to know. Therefore, if today’s mortgage rates look good to you, consider locking something in. There’s more room for rates to rise than to fall.
Make A Mortgage Rate Plan Ahead Of The Jobs Report
Posted by: | Comments
Been shopping for a mortgage rate? You may want to lock something down. Tomorrow morning, mortgage rates are expected to change. Unfortunately, we don’t know in which direction they’ll move.
It’s a risky time for Wisconsin home buyers to be without a locked mortgage rate.
The action begins at 8:30 A.M. ET Friday. This is when the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its April Non-Farm Payrolls report.
The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report is more commonly known as “the jobs report” and provides a sector-by-sector breakdown of the U.S. employment situation, including changes in the Unemployment Rate.
In March 2012, the government reported 120,000 net new jobs created — half the number created during the month prior, and the third straight month of declining job creation. The Unemployment Rate fell one-tenth of one percent to 8.2%.
For April, economists expect to see 160,000 net new jobs created, and no change in the national Unemployment Rate.
Based on the accuracy of those predictions, mortgage rates in Lake Geneva are subject to change. If the actual number of jobs created in April exceeds economist expectations, mortgage rates should rise. Conversely, if the actual number of jobs created falls short, mortgage rates should drop.
Job growth’s link to mortgage rates is straight-forward. Jobs are an economic growth engine and mortgage rates are based economic expectation. Therefore, as the number of people entering the U.S. workforce increases, so do Wall Street’s growth projections for the economy. When that happens — especially in a recovering economy such as this one – mortgage rates tend to rise.
So, for today’s rate shoppers, Friday’s job report represents a risk. The economy has created jobs for 18 straight months, a winning streak that has added 2.9 million people to the U.S. workforce. If that winning streak continues and expectations are beat, mortgage rates are likely to rise off their all-time lows, harming home affordability in Geneva National, among other areas.
Lake Geneva Real Estate – Homes Get More Affordable On March Jobs Data
Posted by: | Comments
Americans continue to get back to work.
Last Friday, in its Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 120,000 net new jobs created, plus combined revisions in the January and February reports of +4,000 jobs.
The March report marks the 18th straight month of job growth nationwide — the first time that’s happened in 5 years.
The Unemployment Rate dipped in March, too, falling one-tenth of one percent to 8.2%. This is its lowest national Unemployment Rate since February 2009.
Clearly, the jobs market is moving in the right direction. Yet, after the Non-Farm Payrolls report was released Friday morning, stock markets dropped and bond markets gained — the opposite of what a casual market observer would expect.
It happened because, although job growth was strong, Wall Street decided it just wasn’t strong enough. The market expected 200,000 jobs created in March at least and the actual reported figure fell short.
Lucky for you, Wall Street’s pain is Main Street’s gain. After the jobs report was released, Lake Geneva real estate mortgage rates immediately dropped to a 3-week low, making homes more affordable in Wisconsin and throughout all 50 states.
The market’s reaction is an excellent example of how important jobs data can be to home affordability — especially in a recovering economy.
The economy shed 7 million jobs between 2008-2009 and has since added more than half of them back. Wall Street pays close attention to job creation because more working Americans means more consumer spending, and more consumer spending means more economic growth.
Lake Geneva real estate mortgage rate shoppers caught a bit of a break on the March payroll data. By all accounts, the labor market recovery in underway and, as it improves, higher mortgage rates are likely nationwide. For now, though, there’s a window for low mortgage rates that buyers and would-be refinancing households can try to exploit.
If you’re actively shopping for a home or a mortgage, today’s mortgage rates may be at “last chance”-like levels. Once rates rise, they’re expected to rise for good.
What’s Ahead For Lake Geneva Real Estate Mortgage Rates This Week: April 2, 2012
Posted by: | Comments
Lake Geneva real estate mortgage markets improved last week on renewed concerns of a European debt default, and Federal Reserve rhetoric.
Conforming mortgage rates in Wisconsin dropped on the news, one week after posting a 5-month high.
A major strike in Spain and growing unrest in Italy, both in opposition to recent austerity measures, have re-ignited fears that the Eurozone may lapse into recession.
These are similar beginnings as with last year’s events in Greece. The difference is that Spain and Italy represent a larger share of the Eurozone’s overall economy, and a debt default could trigger faster contagion.
Mortgage markets gained on the news in a bid of safe haven buying.
Bonds also gained as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke clarified his position on the economy with respect to Fed-led stimulus. Summarized, he said that the Federal Reserve is inclined to keep its accommodative policies in place until the labor market is more fully recovered.
In addition, Chairman Bernanke alluded to making direct mortgage market intervention if U.S. economic growth were to stall in the near future.
The news helped push mortgage rates back below 4.000 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.99% for applicants willing to pay an accompanying 0.7 discount plus closing costs.
1 discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size.
This week’s mortgage market activity will be holiday-shortened so expect volatility — especially surrounding Friday’s March Non-Farm Payrolls report.
More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls details national employment rates and gains or losses in the workforce size. Lately, what’s been good for jobs has been good for the economy so if the actual number of jobs created exceeds the 200,000 projected by economists, or if the Unemployment Rate drops off its current 8.3% reading, look for mortgage rates to rise.
In general, economic expansion is bad forLake Geneva mortgage rates and throughout the nation.
Other market-moving news this week includes Tuesday’s FOMC Minutes release and Thursday Jobless Claims data.
Mortgage Rates Expected To Rise On A Strong Job Report
Posted by: | Comments
With home affordability at an all-time high, buoyed by the lowest mortgage rates ever, it’s been a terrific time to buy or refinance a home using a mortgage.
The good times may not last, though, so today marks an ideal time to lock a mortgage rate. Friday brings risk. Here’s why.
Since 2010, weak economic conditions have been a primary catalyst for low mortgage rates in Wisconsin. Over the last 12 months, though, manufacturing output has been rising, consumer spending has been climbing, and business investment has increasing.
In other words, the economy is improving. However, it’s the jobs market that’s believed to be the economic recovery keystone. When jobs come back, analysts say, so does the economy.
Assuming that’s true, a recovery may already be well underway.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. jobs market has grown for 16 straight months now, adding 2.5 million net new jobs along the way. It’s one reason why the February jobs report matters so much to housing.
Rate shoppers would do well to pay attention.
Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the government will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report for February. Wall Street expects the report to show 210,000 new jobs were created in February, a figure slightly higher than the rolling, 6-month average for job growth. This would be a positive economic indicator.
If the analysts are correct, mortgage rates are likely to rise on the news, harming home affordability.
Furthermore, affordability could be harmed by a lot if the number of net new jobs created exceeds the 210,000 tally expected. It’s not a far-fetched scenario. Wall Street’s “whispers” put the actual jobs figure somewhere between 250,000-300,000. A reading lije this would cause mortgage rates to spike and would add money to a prospective monthly mortgage payment.
If the idea of rising mortgage rates makes you nervous, consider taking your nerves out of the equation. Call your loan officer today. Lock your rate ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 5, 2012
Posted by: | Comments
Mortgage markets worsened last week as the U.S. economy continued to show that it’s in recovery, and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke publicly hinted at the same.
In a congressional testimony Wednesday, Chairman Bernanke suggested that new, Fed-led stimulus may not be imminent, surprising Wall Street analysts and market traders who, for months, have expected a third round of quantitative easing from the Fed.
Bernanke’s comments sparked a sharp bond market sell-off that briefly pushed conforming and FHA mortgage rates up 0.375% in Wisconsin.
Other relevant data from last week included :
- Core inflation rising 1.9% from last year, below the Fed’s 2.0% target
- Consumer confidence climbing to a 12-month high
- Initial jobless claims falling to a 47-month low
Also, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its highest reading since the end of the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit, suggesting a strong spring housing market.
The economy appears much improved over this time last year.
By the end of the week, mortgage rates had recovered somewhat, but still closed worse on the week. Mortgage rates are higher than their lows of the year.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 3.90% nationwide with an accompanying 0.8 discount points and a full set of closing costs. Borrowers in Lake Geneva wishing to pay no points, or fewer fees, should expect higher rates than the Freddie Mac average.
The average 15-year mortgage rate is 3.17% with 0.8 discount points and closing costs.
This week, mortgage rates should be volatile. There aren’t many new data points set for release, but the ones on the calendar are bona fide market-movers — especially Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
More commonly called the “jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls data is closely watched because of the jobs market’s close ties to the health of the economy. Businesses have added jobs through 16 straight months and are expected to show another 210,000 added in February. If the actual number of net new jobs added exceeds 210,000, expect for mortgage rates to rise.
If the number falls short, watch for rates to fall.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 6, 2012
Posted by: | Comments
Mortgage markets worsened last week as domestic job growth surprised Wall Street and the Eurozone moved yet one more step closer to reaching a lasting Greece sovereign debt solution.
Conforming mortgage rates in Wisconsin rose on the news, although you wouldn’t know it from looking at Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.87% last week with 0.8 discount points due at closing, plus closing costs. 1 discount point is a fee equal to one percent of your loan size.
3.87% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the official, all-time low for the weekly Freddie Mac survey, conducted since the 1970s. However, because Freddie Mac gathers its results on Monday and Tuesday only, by the time the survey results were released Thursday morning, mortgage rates were already rising off their lows.
Then, Friday morning, after January’s Non-Farm Payrolls data was released, mortgage rates surged.
The January jobs report exceeded expectations in nearly every fashion possible :
- Economists expected to see 135,000 jobs created in January. The actual number was 243,000.
- Economists expected to see the Unemployment Rate at 8.5% in January. The actual number was 8.3%.
- Revisions added an additional 180,000 net new jobs to the original 2011 tally.
As compared to one year ago, there are 2.1 million more people employed in the U.S. workforce. Figures like this hint at a stronger national economy, and that tends to drive mortgage rates up.
This week, with little economic data due for release, mortgage rates are expected to move on momentum. Right now, that momentum is causing rates to rise.
If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate in Williams Bay and want to know if the time is right to lock, consider that it’s impossible to time a market bottom, but simple to spot a “good deal”.
Mortgage rates remain near historical lows — it’s a good time to lock one in. Call your lender today.
Home Affordability Threatened By Friday’s Jobs Report
Posted by: | Comments
This week, once more, we find mortgage rates are on a downward trajectory. Conforming mortgage rates have returned to near all-time lows. After Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, however, those low rates may come to an end.
It’s a risky time for Wisconsin home buyers and would-be refinancers to be without a locked rate.
Each month, on the first Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month prior. More commonly called the “jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls provides a sector-by-sector employment breakdown, and the nation’s Unemployment Rate.
In December 2011, the government reported 200,000 net new jobs created, and an Unemployment Rate of 8.5%.
For January 2012, economists project 135,000 net new jobs with no change in the Unemployment Rate and, depending on how accurate those predictions are proved, FHA and conforming mortgage rates for homes in Geneva National are subject to change. The monthly jobs reports tends to have an out-sized influence on the direction of daily mortgage rates.
The connection between jobs and mortgage rates is fairly direct.
Job growth is a key cog in the economic growth engine and mortgage rates change daily based on short- and long-term economic expectation. As more people join the workforce, economic expectations change; the economy tends to expand, breeding optimism among investment. When this occurs, it often spurs investment in the stock market, which tends to leads mortgage rates up.
In short, in a recovering economy, when job growth is strong, all things equal, mortgage rates rise. Home affordability suffers.
So, for today’s rate shoppers, Friday’s job report represents a risk. The economy has added jobs over 15 straight months, a streak that’s added 2.1 million people to the workforce. Although the jobs market remains weak and well off its peaks from last decade, a 15-month streak is worth watching. More jobs means more more income earned nationwide, more money spent by households, and more taxes collected by governments.
This items build a foundation for economic growth and Wall Street is watching.
If tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls shows more jobs created than the estimated 135,000, mortgage rates are expected to rise. If the jobs figures falls short, mortgage rates should fall.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 8:30 AM ET.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 30, 2012
Posted by: | Comments
Mortgage markets improved last week as news from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy, and Europe combined to spur new demand for mortgage-backed bonds.
Conforming mortgage rates rallied from Wednesday through Friday’s close, ending the week near all-time lows set earlier this year.
Last week’s rally was sparked by the Federal Open Market Committee.
After its first meeting of the year, Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. changed its projection for “exceptionally low rates” to at least late-2014. Previously, the Fed had said its benchmark Fed Funds Rate would remain low until 2013.
This, in conjunction with the Fed’s message that further economic stimulus may be coming, led Wall Street investors to increase their bets on mortgage bonds, pushing up prices and pushing down yields.
Lower yields means lower rates.
Mortgage rates were also helped lower by mixed data on the U.S. economy including weaker-than-expected housing reports, and another setback in the Greece sovereign debt negotiations.
Each time that Eurozone leaders have failed to reach an expected accord with Greece since 2010, mortgage rates have dropped. Last week was no different.
This week, with a large amount of U.S. economic data due for release and a high-profile summit among European Union leaders, mortgage rates are poised to move. Unfortunately, we can’t know in which direction.
Some of the news that will move markets include :
- Monday : Personal Consumption Expenditures
- Tuesday : Consumer Confidence; Case-Shiller Index
- Wednesday : Construction Spending
- Thursday : Weekly Jobless Claims
- Friday : Non-Farm Payrolls;Factory Orders
Of all of the economic releases, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls has the most potential to move markets. More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls details the monthly change in national employment and the national Unemployment Rate.
Jobs are believed to be the key to U.S. economic recovery so strength in jobs should result in higher mortgage rates throughout Wisconsin and the country.
Mortgage rates remain very low. If you’re nervous about mortgage rates rising this week or next, it’s as good of a time as any to lock your rate with a lender, and start moving toward closing.
Friday’s Jobs Report Represents A Big Risk To Low Mortgage Rates
Posted by: | Comments
Have you been floating a mortgage rate? It may be time to lock.
At 8:30 AM ET Friday, the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its November Non-Farm Payrolls report. Better known as “the jobs report”, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figures provide sector-by-sector employment data, and tally the size of the current U.S. workforce size.
From these two elements, the national Unemployment Rate is derived.
Since topping out at 10.2% in October 2009, the Unemployment Rate has dropped to 9.0%. More than 2.3 million net new jobs have been made in the last 24 months.
Wall Street expect to see 125,000 more jobs added in November.
Depending on how closely the actual Non-Farm Payrolls data meets Wall Street expectations, Lake Geneva mortgage rate shoppers could find that the mortgage market landscape has shifted beneath them. The jobs report is a mortgage-market catalyst and when its reported value differs from Wall Street expectations, the impact on mortgage rates can be palpable — especially in a recovering economy.
The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is straight-forward — as the jobs market goes, so goes the economy.
- When more people work, consumer spending increases
- When consumer spending rises, businesses expand and invest
- When businesses expand and invest, more people are put to work
Furthermore, employees and employers both pay taxes to governments. With more tax revenue, governments embark upon new projects which (1) require the hiring of additional workers, and (2) require the purchase and/or repair of additional equipment and supplies.
Employment can be a self-reinforcing cycle for the economy and that’s why Friday’s jobs report will be so closely watched. If the number of jobs created exceeds the 125,000 expected, mortgage rates will rise on the expectation for a stronger U.S. economy in 2012.
Conversely, if the jobs figures fall short, mortgage rates may fall.
Mortgage rates continue to hover near all-time lows according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is sub-4.000 percent nationwide, with an accompanying fee of 0.7 discount points. 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.
If you’re under contract for a home or looking to refinance, minimize your interest rate risk. Lock ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Get your rate lock in today.